SAN JUAN ISLAND and COUNTY REAL ESTATE MARKET SUMMARY

SAN JUAN  ISLAND and COUNTY REAL  ESTATE  MARKET SUMMARY

The third quarter results for San Juan Island and San Juan County, for the most part, reflected a downward direction when compared to 2025 for the same period in both volume and transaction numbers. Per the NWMLS, the dollar volume year-to-date on San Juan Island was $108,388,919 with a total of 99 transactions.  This reflects a 12% decrease in the dollar volume and a 16% decrease in the number of transactions. 

For San Juan County, the total dollar volume was $275,711,582 with a total of 240 transactions.  The County had a slight 4% increase in dollar volume but a 5% decrease in number of transactions.   Orcas Island continues to do the heavy lifting for the County but regardless, the national economic conditions continue to take their toll.

We are still struggling with our local market with the impact from national and international events.  The high interest rates, inflation and the uncertainty of the political environment are all playing a roll.  Unfortunately, report after report, I am repeating myself regarding these issues.  The buyers that were in our market have lost confidence or are restricted by the high interest rate environment.   Real estate has always been one of the best investments but buying real estate in the San Juans is taking less of a priority as compared to other events in prospective buyer’s lives.  

The buyers that are active are being rewarded.  The sellers are flexible, there is more selection, so buyers can view more properties for comparison, there is less competition and more negotiating power.  Lenders are offering very creative programs with interest rate buy downs and ARMS that are helping many buyers continue with their purchases.  Per Redfin, nearly half of the U. S. home sales included a seller concession in August in the form of an interest rate buy down or contribution to buyer’s closing costs. 

It is clear by the data that sellers are motivated and they are trying to sell.  They are often negotiating with authority.  I have noted that the typical “dance” of original offer, and a counter, then a contract, has extended to several counters made by both buyer and seller before a contract is mutually agreed upon. The transactions are being highly negotiated.  The charts below contain the average percentage of seller negotiation for homes and land during the last 12-month period. I have noted that the range for each of these categories is broader now than in the past.  Below are the averages.

The spread between the percentage off-listed price and off-original list price represents price reductions that were required to attract a buyer.    The percentages shown in the charts above are very similar to those we experienced in 2025; however, the buyer pool is smaller.   

Assuming a good marketing plan is in place, price reductions are one of the only tools that sellers can use in our market due to the small and cautious buyer pool.  We have a saying in our industry, and it applies to our current market; “lower the price and they will come”.

The current inventory in both the County and San Juan Island has been building up over the last year.  In some months, the levels were impacted by the seasonal adjustments and the holidays; but overall, it has been an upward trend.  Interesting enough, the Days on Market is lower than in years past.  I believe this is attributed to sellers setting their listing prices closer to the current market value.

As of October 1st, the total inventory for San Juan Island was 137 listings for all types of properties with 14 of those pending in escrow and 123 were active listings. 

For the County, the inventory total was 349 listings with 36 of those pending and 313 active listings.  In both cases, very similar to October 2025; however, the number of Pending Sales is lower.

The data reflects a good number of sales at more than $1M each.  For San Juan Island year-to-date, we have had 31 sales over $1M as compared to the same period in 2025 when we had 35 sales in this category.  For the County we have had a total of 92 sales, more than $1M each as compared to 82 in 2025.  Many of the high-end transactions this year were properties on Orcas Island. 

If it wasn’t for the fact that my partner and I are having a great year in production, I would have a difficult time with the small buyer pool.  We  were  fortunate to list a lot of properties  and  to be involved in  numerous high-end sales  year-to-date.  This will be our best year since 2023.

What does Artificial Intelligence tell buyers and sellers in our local real estate market? 

If you use AI to aid in some of your local buying or selling decision, you need to recognize that the program will garner information from the Internet, some of it may be public information posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service or from authors that have used the NWMLS data.  However, in a market our size, the formulas must be modified to adjust to our small market as we don’t have enough sales for the data to be reliable.    For instance, NWMLS uses a monthly median home price or a monthly year-over-year, we use the last 12-month period.   We also use the last 12–month period for the average percentage off list price, the average price for homes or land and average Days on Market;  we cannot rely on a monthly number as it is too volatile.   

The risk of depending on ChatGPT to assist you in negotiations, whether you are a buyer or seller, is the loss of an opportunity. If a client inquires with ChatGPT for the average percentage of negotiation off list price on San Juan Island, they may not receive a reliable percentage as the NWMLS uses the same approach for San Juan County data as they do for the nearby metropolitan areas and their press release is based on monthly, or month-over-month, or monthly year-over-year figures for each County.   This formula is great for the metropolitan areas where they have 2000 sales close per month, but not reliable for rural real estate such as San Juan County where we have 20 sales close on average per month.  The data searches need to be processed manually on the NWMLS by an agent with boots on the ground that has seen the homes personally and can assist you with your decision. 

Even the percentages cited above in our charts are too broad to be used to aid a buyer or seller; they are used to determine the market trends only.  The percentages above are from closings for all property types; homes, condominiums, and manufactured homes, and for all price ranges.

Other questions that clients have asked ChatGPT include; How should my home be marketed? How long will it take to sell?  What is the median and average home price?  Can you provide me with 5 comparable sales and make adjustment for the differences as compared to the home I want to buy? 

The program will provide a generic response to these questions.   However, the data search must be narrower to be reliable.  For example, a custom NWMLS search for all statistical data for closed waterfront homes in the price range of $1.5m to $2M in the last 6 months would be good information.  You need more than a generic response to decide on both buying and selling property in our market and that doesn’t come from ChatGPT, currently.

All information that Coldwell Banker San Juan Islands Inc. and I publish is based on custom searches for our rural market.  It is time-consuming but rewarding as we know that our community relies upon the information and trusts us to publish accurate data.  However, the data in our reports should not be used when analyzing a purchase or sale, you need custom NWMLS data reports.   The good news is that , I know that I personally will not be replaced by a bot in the near future when it comes to writing the real estate market reports for our community.

Don’t get me wrong, I use ChatGPT regularly in my business, but I already know the answer to the equation that I am looking for or I test the results I receive from ChatGPT before I use the information.  Buyers choose agents for trustworthiness, experience and local expertise.    AI is not a trustworthy source for valuable information at this point in time, as the results are not narrow enough and not directly from the NWMLS.  Only an agent can process custom searches on the NWMLS.

 If you have any questions about our local real estate market, feel free to contact me directly.  

Written by:

Merri Ann Simonson

Coldwell Banker SJI

Managing Broker

360-317-8668