SAN JUAN COUNTY REAL ESTATE MARKET SUMMARY

The year-end numbers were encouraging; both San Juan County and San Juan Island show increases in dollar volume and number of transactions.   However, even though the volume and transaction numbers were up, the median home price is still on a downward trend for San Juan Island.  This is primarily due to the median being a lagging index and in a market our size, we use a 12-month period, which further elongates the market results.  

In reviewing the results for 2025, the sales dollar volume for the real estate market in San  Juan  County, per  the   Northwest   Multiple Listing Service, was $352,646,070 which reflects an increase in dollar volume of 19% as compared to 2024 when the dollar volume was $295,384,321.     The County closed 348 transactions, which is an 11% increase from 2024.  The average number of transactions per month was 29 compared to 25 last year.

Total dollar volume on San Juan Island in 2025 was $164,054,070 as compared to $129,304,955 in   2024.   The   increase    was    27%   in   dollar Volume. The Island closed 162 transactions, which is a 19% increase.   The   average   number   of transactions per month was 13.5 compared to 11 last year.   I love using the word INCREASE!

A returning segment to our market is the number of buyers for properties that are more than $1m each.   In 2025, San Juan County closed 114 sales in this category as compared to 96 in 2024.  Of those sales, San Juan Island closed 49 as compared to 40 in 2024.  In the County, 15 of those sales were more than $3 m each.  This number of high-end buyers was not present in our market during the second half of 2022, all of 2023 and 2024.  Some of the buyers for lower priced properties feel more confident in buying property when the high-end buyers are active in the market. 

The current inventory level is brutal for all property types, but we assume that it will increase by Spring as it has done in past years.  Sellers typically remove their properties from active marketing during the holidays as they want to give the listing a break and they may want to entertain regularly, which is difficult while the property is on the market as your home must remain show ready.   Most will consider listing again in the Spring after they can process the Winter clean up, so their curb appeal is high.  Many hope to close during the Summer of 2026 and listing by Spring gives them that edge as the average days on the market plus the number of days to process the transaction equate to a Summer closing.  

The expected market conditions for 2026 will continue to favor the buyers for at least the first 6 months.  Even though inventory is down, which typically strengthens the seller’s position, the interest rates have kept many buyers out of the market, so sellers at the current time must compete for the buyer’s attention.  The active buyers will be granted time during their transaction to process their financing, home inspection, feasibility study and even close a home that they have sold elsewhere.  The typical transaction time is 45 days if financing is involved, and 30 days if not.  Most sellers will not accept an offer contingent upon a home sale elsewhere unless we are in the shoulder seasons of our market such as Fall and Winter.

Highlights of our market:

• The median home, condominium and manufactured housing price for a 12-month period ending December 2025 for San Juan Island was $775,000 which is an 8% decrease from 2024 when it was $842,000. The median home price for the same period for the County was $887,500, which is a 4.5% increase from 2024 when it was $850,000.  For this index, the County has started to turn the corner.  The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.   Median price is not an appreciation/depreciation calculation but merely a trend. It lags the market in general plus we use a 12-month period for analysis due to the size of our market.  As the County is now showing an increase in the median price, the San Juan Island median home price should stabilize during the first part of 2026, if the market remains on the current trend.  It is possible that our prices are just going to continue to increase regardless, even if the market is less active. 

• The average days on the market number (DOM) for homes, condominiums and manufactured housing on San Juan Island was 106 during 2025 which is an increase from the DOM of 86 during 2024; however, it does vary on the price range.  The average days on market for homes for the County during 2025 was 103 days which is increase over the 95 in 2024. 

• On San Juan Island, 49 sales for all types of real estate closed in excess of $1M. Orcas had a total of 40 sales. The other islands had 25 sales.  The total for the County was 114 sales in excess of $1M each in 2025.     

  
  

• Inventory levels on San Juan Island and the County for all property types remain very low. This is typical this time of year.   On San Juan Island the total inventory as of January 4th was 61 with 50 active and 11 pending, very similar to January 2025.  The total inventory for the County was 170 with 149 active and 21 pending.  The county had a slight increase in total, but the number of pending is very similar.

  
  

• During the last year sellers negotiated on average 5.7% off the list price of homes at the time of sale on San Juan Island and the same average amount on for homes in the County.  These percentages reflect a slight increase in the amount of negotiation for both the Island and County. Again, the percentage will vary subject to price range, and this calculation includes all homes, condominiums and manufactured housing.  The percentage off original list price was much greater during 2025 which indicates that sellers had to reduce their original prices in order to attract a buyer.  For both the Island and County, the average sold price percentage to the original listing price was close to 12%.

• Sellers negotiated on average 7% off the list price of land at the time of sale on San Juan Island and an average of 8% off the list price of land in the County. In order to attract a buyer, they had to reduce their original price on average 14% and 12%, respectively. The demand for unimproved property decreased as land and construction loans offered a very high rate of interest, and that coupled with the ever-increasing cost of construction and regulatory delays, land sales cooled.  Sellers had to negotiate much more off their list price in 2025 than they did in 2024.   

Many of the national economic forecasters working for Zillow, Red Fin and the National and Washington Association of Realtors are predicting that mortgage interest rates will decrease in 2026.  The pattern for rate reduction was very slow in 2025.  Perhaps with inflation at the benchmark, the Federal Reserve will be more inclined to reduce their rates.   It may take until May when there will be a new appointment for the Chair of the Board at the Federal Reserve.

The mortgage rates are set by the lenders and the market, to some extent.  They are influenced by the Federal Reserve, bond market and other indexes.  Only time will tell how much the rates will decrease in 2026, but it is predicted that 6% will be the norm for the year.   Per the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage loan applications have increased since the interest rates have started to decrease.

Per Lawrence Yun, the economic forecaster for the National Association of REALTORS, the sales activity nationally will increase on average 14% in 2026, which is similar to what we experienced in the islands in 2025.   He believes that if rates are close to 6%, it will open the market to many more buyers.  He also said that whenever there has been a slow market, such as June 2022—2024, the growth in the returning market after the correction has always been in double digits. 

We have numerous buyers in our local market that need financing and something needs to change so that these families can reach the goal of home ownership.    

The national economy and ever surprising government actions may keep some buyers on the fence.  However, many buyers realize that the stock market is not sustainable at these levels and it may be     prudent to move funds from the stock market into real estate as it is a recommended investment.  Most of our buyers are in the age group of 45-65; therefore, volatile investment types such as Crypto and Bitcoin are not in their comfort zone, but real estate is.         

As hardworking agents in real estate on this island, we feel good about the market in 2026, and we are looking forward to it.  We believe the market will balance out after the inventory builds in the Spring.  We much prefer a more balanced approach to price negotiation and transaction management.  A balanced market makes it more equitable for all the parties involved. 

If you have any questions about our market, please be sure to contact me or my partner, Terri Zambrovitz.

SHOWCASE OF LISTINGS: The Coldwell Banker San Juan Islands, Inc. Showcase of Listings Deadline this year is March 30, 2026.  If you are considering selling your property this year, this is an excellent publication to be included in.  The showcase is a handout at our Friday Harbor office, Roche Harbor Resort, as well as on the ferry system.  We also create a digital version for emailing to our office database. Contact Terri or me should you have interest in selling and want a free opinion of value for your property.

Written by:

Merri Ann Simonson

360-317-8668

Simonson@sanjuanislands.com