SAN JUAN COUNTY REAL ESTATE MARKET SUMMARY

Jul 15
5 min read

The second quarter results, which complete the first half of the year, in San Juan County and on San Juan Island reflect stable dollar volume with a fewer number of sales. Per the NWMLS, the dollar volume for the first half of the year in San Juan County was $159,961,071 which is an increase of 30% as compared to the same 6-month period in 2025. The County closed 123 transactions as compared to 145 for the same period in 2025. This reflects a 15% decrease in number of transactions.

For San Juan Island, the dollar volume was $55,263,719 with a total of 53 transactions. This was a 3% decrease in dollar volume and a 27% decrease in the number of transactions. May 2026 was a very slow month; the County had 44% fewer sales, and San Juan island had 36% fewer sales as compared to May 2025. May was slow statewide as well.

When the number of transactions is lower with similar dollar volume it is due to higher average sales prices. For the County, the average sales price for all types of properties year-to-date was $1,300,500 as compared to $849,000 for the same period in 2025. For San Juan Island, the average price was $1,042,700 as compared to $776,800 in 2025. County wide year-to-date, 72 of the sales were under $1M with a total dollar volume of $39,337,967. There were 51 sales over $1M for a total dollar volume of $120,623,104. An average calculation is not appreciation.

The median home index is not an appreciation calculation either, but a trend. The median price in the County is currently $930,000 when calculated in the last 12-months. This is a 10% increase over the prior 12-month period. The median price for San Juan Island is $795,000 which is unchanged from last year.

For Washington State, the median home sales price was unchanged from May 2026 to June 2026. The state can calculate change on a month-to-month number as they have greater volume.

Orcas is contributing more than in years past. Their dollar volume for the first half of the year was $86,715,658 with a total of 50 transactions. This is more than 50% of the entire County’s volume for the period. Orcas outperformed San Juan Island which is the County seat and has a greater population base. As compared to 2025 for the same period, Orcas reflects an equal number of transactions but this year’s dollar volume reflects an increase of 67%. Go Orcas!!!! Granted they did have one very large transaction close during the first quarter, but they are keeping their momentum going during the second quarter.

This remains an unpredictable market due to national and global economic conditions that are caused by the global turmoil.

The most important takeaway from this data is buyers are finding good opportunities in our market and doing well during the negotiations. Inventory is at levels very similar to summer of 2025; however, the closing volume has increased. The buyer’s market will most likely continue throughout the rest of 2026. With interest rates being so volatile, many buyers remain on the fence so the ones active in the market have great selection, minimal competition from other buyers, and good negotiation authority with the property owners.

In June 2026, the NWMLS statewide keybox activity on listed homes reflects a 9% decrease from May 2026 and decrease of 3.4% when comparing this June to June 2025. Inventory continues to increase across much of Washington State. Throughout the state, closed sales increased year-over-year and month-over-month on average. Buyers are touring a wider variety of available homes due to the large inventory selection in the state.

It is clear that buyers are hesitant to write offers and the showing activity level has been slow. When the buyers do write, they request that the sellers consider discounts below the year-to-date average percentage off list price. Most buyers are accepting some form of a counteroffer and the transactions come together near the average. We have had a few multiple offers year-to-date, but not many.

Focusing on just San Juan Island homes from July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026, I researched the following data.

For the last 12 months, average percentage off the list price for home sales on San Juan Island was 6.1% for all types of homes. The number varied based on price range. One of our best performing categories for homes on San Juan was $600,000-$1M with the percentage off list price at 2.98%. The most negotiation was demonstrated in the over $2M category with 6.43%. The Days on Market (DOM) varied as well, the average for all types of homes was 107 for San Juan Island. Again, the best performing category was $600,000-$1M with 90 DOM. We had 118 sales close in the period cited above, which is a strong sampling for the analysis.

On San Juan Island the closed land sales for the last 12-months averaged 8.25% off the list price. Land sales have always had larger discounts than home sales. The parcels involved in the data were on the market for an average of 136 days and the median price was $250,000. We only had 13 sales from July 1, 2025 until June 30, 2026; less data is less reliable. Land sales have been slow due to high costs of construction materials, the frustration of building on the island due to regulation levels, and lack of land loans and/or high interest rates, when you can find a loan.

A balanced market is considered to be 4-6 months by most industry experts. If the economic definition is used, then we are in a strong buyer’s market. If that is the case, some of those buyers that desire to take advantage of a good opportunity to buy real estate, are still holding on to their wallets. With gains continuing in the stock market, some buyers are holding on to that type of investment versus a real estate investment. However, we are noting more 1031 deferred tax exchanges in the transactions, so some buyers are moving into different real estate investments.

The inventory levels on San Juan Island and the County for all property types have been maintaining; when reviewing year-over-year. On San Juan Island the total inventory as of July 2nd was 144 with 125 active and 19 pending, this was a 142% increase since January 4, 2026, but very similar to the numbers on June 30, 2025. Inventory has always built up for the spring market.

The total inventory on July 2nd for the County was 356 with 308 active and 48 pending, a 109% increase since January 4, 2026 but very similar to June 30, 2025. The number of pending sales on San Juan Island is very similar to June 30, 2025, but the County reflects an increase of 15%.

By the end of February 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates had reached their lowest point since September 2022 at 5.98%. Then with global turmoil, the rates increased and hovered around 6.5% in June 2026.

Conclusion:

An unusual market equates to the inability to predict how the year will end up. Typically, by the end of June the pattern is formed, and I can express an opinion, but not this year.

If you have any questions about our current real estate market, please be sure to contact one of us.

SAN JUAN COUNTY

YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS AND VOLUME