SAN JUAN ISLAND and COUNTY REAL ESTATE MARKET SUMMARY

The third quarter results for San Juan Island and San Juan County are reflecting a market in transition in both volume and transaction numbers. Per the NWMLS, the dollar volume year-to-date on San Juan Island was $123,100,070 with a total of 116 transactions.  This reflects a 31% increase in the dollar volume and a 17% increase in the number of transactions.  This is far better than last year in the same period when I reported a 21% decrease in dollar volume and 22% decrease in number of transactions.

For San Juan County, the total dollar volume was $263,924,570 with a total of 250 transactions.  The County’s increases were 24% in dollar volume and 14% in number of transactions.  

We are still struggling with the market correction, high interest rates and the uncertainty of the political environment; however, buyers are more confident that real estate remains one of the best investments.   Therefore, buying a property in the San Juans is a more visible goal for some of the buyers.  

With inflation being more stable, the speculation is interest rates will start to trend downward, which will open the market for buyers who had stepped back earlier this year.  If they start to re-engage, it will create new momentum in the market.

There is merit to mentioning that within the last year, the turn-around in our market is taking shape.  This is the second quarter of positive increases versus decreases.  Having said that, two quarters do not make a market but do hint of a welcome trend.  

Our market needs a more balanced environment, and lower interest rates will assist in this arena. 

Based on the number of months it will take for the inventory to be absorbed; we have been in a buyer’s market in the last quarter and some of our sellers have had to deeply negotiate to attract a buyer and close on a sale.  Perhaps some started too optimistically with their pricing and had to discount down to reality, but some were spot on with their pricing.    

Either way, the result was some buyers were able to negotiate great buys in our market during the last quarter. I typically do not review data for quarter-to-quarter as our market is too small and there are not enough closings to consider, but I needed to confirm what I felt was going on.  For the period of January through June 2025 on San Juan Island for homes, our sellers negotiated on average 2.9% off their list price at the time of sale and 6.9% off their original list price.  

During the period of July through September 2025, sellers negotiated on homes an average 7% off list price and 12.5% off their original list price.   The discounts during the last quarter were deep but the number of transactions involved was less, which may have an impact, and this is a short snap shot into the market.    Regardless, we were in summer, our peak season when the largest number of buyers were present.   Perhaps these discounts in the last quarter were part of the correction needed to balance the market.  These recent sales will be used by agents as comparable sales for the pricing of their future listings. 

I look forward to lower interest rates as they will widen the buyer pool and create more competition to absorb the inventory which will level the playing field between buyers and sellers somewhat.

The current inventory in both the County and San Juan Island has been building up over the last year.  In some months, the levels were impacted by the seasonal adjustments and the holidays; but overall, it has been an upward trend, and the total has returned to the fall 2020 levels.

As of October 1st, the total inventory for San Juan Island was 142 listings for all types of properties with 21 of those pending in escrow and 121 were active listings. 

For the County, the inventory total was 341 listings with 43 of those pending and 298 active listings. 

The number of pending sales has been increasing on San Juan Island since the end of June.  For the County, the number of pending sales has been up and down since June.  The number of pending sales on both the Island and in the County are similar to October 1, 2024; however, last October 1st we had a fewer number of listings.     

Another change in our market that reflects transition to a higher activity level is the number of sales more than $1M each.  For San Juan Island year-to-date, we have had 35 sales over $1M as compared to the same period in 2024 when we had 29 sales.  For the County we have had 82 sales  more than $1M as compared to 65 in 2024.  Further, we had two very large sales in 2025; one on Orcas for $13.1M and one on San Juan for $11.7M.  There is a theory that when wealthy people are comfortable in purchasing investments, it builds confidence in other individuals for that same type of investment.

What do you get for your money on San Juan Island? 

For active listings on residential land on San Juan the lowest priced parcel is $160,000 and the highest is $2.5M.  The median price is $452,000.   You don’t find parcels offering a decent water view until you are above $300,000.  Waterfront parcels start at $400,000 but you need to spend in the range of $800,000-$1M to find a parcel without topography or view challenges.  All waterfront parcels are a challenge to build on due to regulations.

Manufactured homes on leased land start at $239,000 on San Juan and manufactured homes on owned lots start around $450,000.  Condominiums start around $225,000 for a Sandpiper Unit which is 400 sf, which offers 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom.  Stick built homes start at $515,000 but you can’t buy a home or condominium with a small water view until $660,000.  Homes and units with decent views start at $900,000.   Waterfront homes start at $1.5M.  Some condominiums in a waterfront complex start at $750,000 but the waterfront access is shared with other unit owners.  The median price for the 39 waterfront homes and units listed is $3.2M with the average at $5.4M.

Boat slips start at $162,000 for a 30-foot slip. Our market offers some multi-family and commercial zoned properties as well.   We even have a shared equity listing for a waterfront home offered at $365,000. 

When considering a purchase, many buyers use a price per square foot to analyze the value of a home which is provided to them via the various websites such as Zillow, Homes.com and Realtor.com.  Those websites include the land costs in the total price per foot which will distort the analysis for the buyer.  Most of our homes were custom construction and each parcel of land offered different amenities.   The best way to review closed comparable sales is to deduct the value of the land from the sales price on each sale and then run the cost per square foot on the balance of the price to compare.  As agents we refine the process further by adjusting for number of bedrooms, baths, out buildings, garages, size of parcel, size of view, docks, etc.  

Bottom line:  We expect that 2026 will be a more balanced market for our buyers and sellers which creates a more equitable transaction for both parties.  I think that people want to get on with their lives, which includes buying and selling property in the islands, but the uncertainty in the nation on so many levels, especially economically, is having a large impact on their decision process. 

Written by:

Merri Ann Simonson

Coldwell Banker SJI

360.317.8668

Simonson@sanjuanisland.com