SAN JUAN COUNTY REAL ESTATE MARKET SUMMARY

simonson9
Jul 9
5 min read

The second quarter results, which complete the first half of the year, in San Juan County and on San Juan Island reflect a stabilization in volume. We are tracking very closely with 2024 for the same period. Per the NWMLS, the dollar volume for the first half of the year in San Juan County was $122,355,820 with a total of 143 transactions. The numbers reflect a 5% increase in dollar volume and a 20% increase in number of transactions and as compared to the same 6-month period in 2024.

For San Juan Island, the dollar volume was $55,957,320 with a total of 71 transactions. This was an .20% increase in the dollar volume and an 18% increase in the number of transactions. The number of transactions is higher due to a lower average sales price. For the County, the average price year-to-date is $943,076 compared to $1,038,197 for the same period in 2024. Regardless, it feels good to type increase versus decrease while authoring this report.

This remains an unpredictable market. The National Association of REALTORs, chief economist, Lawrence Yun expects sales to rebound, projecting that closed transactions could rise about 6% in the second half of 2025, if mortgage rates ease. Mortgage rates dipped last week with a 30-year fixed at 6.81%. It wasn’t enough to translate into buyers reconnecting with pre-qualifications, refinances, or purchase applications, those all remain low according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The median home price in the County is currently $850,000 when calculated on the last 12-months. This is slightly down from the prior 12-month period, but in the regional markets, the prices are basically flat.

The most important takeaway from this data is, if a buyer is on the sidelines due to higher interest rates, they may be granted a slightly lower rate in the future, but the days of old when the rates were under 4% interest are most likely not in the near future. Prices are still edging higher in most markets and our slight decrease could be attributed to the seasonality of our market or the original prices being set too high by optimistic sellers. If a buyer waits too long to purchase, they may end up paying more for the property. A buyer should “do the math” and decide if the savings in interest offsets the higher purchase price in the future.

Many studies have revealed that if a property is priced properly to start with, it closes at a higher price than if set optimistically, and then the seller must lower the price to attract a buyer.

At times, our market feels like a roller coaster, one month the buyer leads and inquiries from Zillow and other platform’s on our listed properties are down in their numbers, then up the next month.

In June 2025, the NWMLS statewide keyboxes on listed homes reflect a 4.5% decrease from May 2025 but an increase year-over-year to 4.9%. The number of NWMLS statewide property showings scheduled reflects a decrease of 6.8% in June as compared to May with a year-over-year increase of 3.1% from the number of showings in June 2024.

It is clear that buyers are interested and are viewing property, but the activity level is volatile. The buyers are also hesitant to write offers. When they do write, they are requesting that the sellers consider discounts well below the year-to-date average percentage off list price. Some offers are being written at 8-10% off list price and settling in lower, if settling at all.

For the last 12 months, average percentage off the list price for home sales on San Juan Island was 3.6%. The homes in the data were on the market for an average of 76 days. For the County, the average was 4.7% off the list price but that includes the transactions on the non-ferry serviced islands which typically have larger discounts.

On San Juan Island the land sales for the last 12-months averaged 7% off the list price. Land sales have always had larger discounts than home sales. The parcels involved in the data were on the market for an average of 137 days.

For the County, the land average was 8.3% off the list price and the parcels were on the market for an average of 149 days.

We have recently transcended into a Buyer’s Market as inventory has increased to an 11-month supply for all types of homes in the County per the NWMLS. This coupled with the high interest rates and constant policy changes in our government, results in some buyers staying on the sidelines unless the property checks all their “boxes” and they feel that they are getting a “better than average price and terms”. In June of 2024, we had an 8.3-month supply of inventory. The absorption rate calculation is just a frozen “snapshot” in time and does not consider any other future events that have an impact on sales; good or bad.

As our location has a heavy concentration of second homes, future retirement as well as primary homes, our days on the market have always been longer than the nearby metropolitan areas. It is just the nature of rural real estate. Our sellers and buyers don’t have the level of urgency that the metropolitan areas have; they did not just get a job in Tacoma and must sell their Seattle home in 30 days. Buying a second or future retirement home requires disposable income and excess cash reserves, which narrows the size of our buyer pool and lengthens our days on the market.

A balanced market is considered to be 4-6 months by most industry experts. If the economic definition is used, then we are in a strong buyer’s market. If that is the case, some of those buyers that desire to take advantage of a good opportunity to buy real estate, are still holding on to their wallets.

The inventory levels on San Juan Island and the County for all property types has been increasing at a strong pace. On San Juan Island the total inventory as of June 30th was 148 with 130 active and 18 pending, which reflects a 120% increase from January 2, 2025. Inventory has always built-up for the spring market, but this percentage of increase is higher than normal.

The total inventory on June 30th for the County was 350 with 309 active and 41 pending, a 132% increase. Notable is the percentage of pending transactions which reflects an increase of 61% for San Juan Island and 36% for the County as compared to the number of pending sales in July 2024. Pending sales typically result in closings and drive the market numbers. Inventory levels drive the type of market; buyer’s or seller’s.

Conclusion: Stating the obvious, we are in Catch 22. We wanted more inventory to offer a greater selection for the buyers, but the level increased to a point where now the market favors the buyers. Regardless, more inventory equates to more buyers which equates to more opportunities for our sellers to attract a buyer.

In real estate what goes around comes around; whether you are a buyer or seller, not waiting for the perfect conditions can still offer great opportunities.

An unusual market equates to the inability to predict how the year will end up. Typically, by the end of June the pattern is formed, and I can express an opinion, but not this year.

If you have any questions about our current real estate market, please be sure to contact one of us.